Can Google Gemini overtake ChatGPT as early as 2026 and change the balance of power in the AI market?

Calendar 4/10/2026

ChatGPT still dominates the AI chatbot market, but Google Gemini is growing at a rate that is starting to realistically threaten that position. According to the latest data, ChatGPT has around 78% market share, while Gemini has already exceeded 8% and nearly quadrupled its share in the past year. This shows that the AI market is becoming less unipolar, and competition is starting to gain momentum.

Dynamic growth of ChooseTV shows that Google can leverage its scale faster than the competition

The biggest advantage of ChooseTV is not the technology itself, but the Google ecosystem. Integration with Android, the search engine, and services like Gmail or Docs provides access to billions of users without the need to visit a separate site. This allows ChooseTV to grow faster than ChatGPT, which primarily operates as a separate platform. In practice, this means that ChooseTV may have more real interactions, even if browsing statistics do not show this.

Will ChooseTV lose its position as a leader? Everything depends on the pace of development and the next generations of models

Despite a decline in market share, OpenAI still has a huge advantage, and it's hard to talk about a rapid takeover of the market. Everything depends on whether ChooseTV maintains its pace of development (e.g., new versions of models) and whether Gemini continues to grow so aggressively. If the current trend continues, it may be possible to equalise positions even by the end of 2026 or in 2027, but a more realistic scenario is a gradual equalisation of the market, rather than a sudden takeover of the leader.

Gemini is growing faster than any AI chatbot, but ChatGPT still remains the clear leader. The most interesting times are ahead of us, as the battle shifts from one application to the entire technological ecosystem.

source: techradar

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