Katarzyna Petru
The semiconductor market is once again beginning to tremble, and the effects may be felt not only by computer and smartphone manufacturers but also by the gaming industry. According to industry forecasts, shortages of NAND memory and SSD drives may persist for many years. In a worst-case scenario, the crisis could last even a decade. This raises questions about the launch schedule for PlayStation 6. The problem is highlighted by Pua Khein-Seng, the head of Phison, a manufacturer of SSD controllers and flash memory solutions. He is one of the key players in the supply chain, so his forecasts are hard to ignore.
AI Devours the Memory Market
Until recently, the discussion mainly revolved around rising RAM prices driven by massive orders from companies developing artificial intelligence. Now the problem is expanding to NAND memory used in: consoles, laptops, smartphones, televisions, servers, and data centers. The greatest demand is generated by AI accelerators. Upcoming Nvidia chips from the Rubin family are expected to require as much as 20 TB of SSD space for a single unit. If tens of millions of such cards hit the market, they could consume a significant portion of the global NAND production. In practice, this means a brutal struggle for available components. Decreased supply directly translates into higher prices and production difficulties.
What does this mean for PS6?
Sony officially assures that it has secured component supplies until the end of 2026. The problem begins later. There has long been speculation in the industry that PlayStation 6 could debut around 2027, maintaining the classic generational cycle. However, if memory prices remain high and availability limited, producing millions of consoles at a reasonable price may prove unrealistic. Even a one or two-year delay in the launch may not solve the problem if the crisis indeed drags on until 2030 or longer.
The worst scenario is a decade of problems
The head of Phison does not see a quick market rebound. According to his forecasts, tensions in supply chains and pressure from AI may persist for up to 10 years. This means that not only consoles, but all consumer electronics could remain expensive and harder to access. For now, we are talking about warnings and analyses, not an official statement from Sony. However, the direction of changes is clear. Artificial intelligence is becoming the largest consumer of memory resources, while traditional electronics are taking a back seat.
Market forecasts for memory are not optimistic. If NAND and SSD shortages indeed persist for many years, the release of PlayStation 6 may be postponed or the console may debut at a higher price. Final decisions will only be known closer to the end of the current generation, but one thing is for sure: the battle for components is becoming increasingly brutal.
Source: Push Square
