Katarzyna Petru
Which codec will take over from MPEG4 AVC (H.264)? HEVC (H.265) is still on the rise, AV1 is increasingly marking its position, but VVC – the official successor to HEVC – according to Rethink Research, has practically no chance of mass adoption.
For years, MPEG2 powered DVD and digital television, before it was replaced by MPEG4 AVC. Later, HEVC became the standard for 4K and HDR, and AV1 gained support from tech giants as a free alternative. Now the industry is slowly looking for the next generation of codecs – with an eye on 4K, 8K, VR, and reducing data transmission costs.
Is VVC "dead on arrival"?
Theoretically, the next step was supposed to be VVC (H.266) – a codec designed as the direct successor to HEVC. Released in 2020, it promised a halving of bitrate at the same 4K quality. However, four years later, hardly anyone is implementing it. Alex Davies, a senior analyst at Rethink Research, assesses it unequivocally:
"It's not entirely true that VVC is dead on arrival, but it has deviated so much from historical norms of codec adoption that in practice, it is. The market has no motivation to implement it. This is due to the massive increase in mobile and fixed internet bandwidth and the exponential growth in device computing power. No one is demanding VVC, and this benefits AV1 and AOMedia."
In short: streamers see no need to switch to VVC, and hardware manufacturers aren't even offering chips that support this codec in hardware.
AV1 is here. AV2 on the way
AV1 – developed by AOMedia and supported by Amazon, Apple, Disney, Google, Intel, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Samsung – already has real-world implementations in streaming and hardware. However, it still lags behind in scale compared to HEVC, which, according to forecasts, won’t become the most commonly used codec in the world until 2028, surpassing MPEG4 AVC. The next generation, AV2, is expected to be completed by the end of 2025. AV2 is set to provide greater efficiency in 4K, 8K, and VR – areas that VVC also targeted. However, even here, analysts anticipate a slow pace of adoption.
The first devices with hardware support for AV2 and VVC do not yet exist.
What’s next? Possible shift towards proprietary codecs and AI
Davies adds that the future may look completely different from previous generations of codecs:
“There’s still a chance that the largest streaming services will start developing their own in-house codecs. Additionally, there is a trend towards AI-based compression, utilising NPU chips in end devices. This could undermine the traditional block-based approach to image encoding – but that’s a perspective much further out than the scope of our forecast.”
In other words: before AV2 or VVC become mainstream, the industry may already pivot towards machine learning-based algorithms.
Summary: what really is the standard?
HEVC (H.265) – dominates in 4K, steadily growing.
AV1 – quickly gaining support from major companies and equipment.
VVC (H.266) – practically without adoption, lack of demand and lack of equipment.
AV2 – coming soon, but expansion will take years.
In practice, this means that for a long time the market will operate with HEVC + AV1 duo, and the codec revolution – if it happens – will likely come from a completely different direction than VVC.
