Katarzyna Petru
The semiconductor market is starting to waver again, and the consequences may be felt not only by computer and smartphone manufacturers but also by the gaming industry. According to industry forecasts, shortages of NAND memory and SSD drives could persist for many years. In an extreme scenario, the crisis could last even a decade. This puts the release schedule of the PlayStation 6 in jeopardy. The issue is highlighted by Pua Khein-Seng, the head of Phison, a producer of SSD controllers and flash memory solutions. He is one of the key players in the supply chain, making his forecasts difficult to ignore.
AI Devours the Memory Market
Not long ago, the discussion primarily revolved around rising RAM prices caused by enormous orders from companies developing artificial intelligence. Now, the problem is expanding to NAND memory used in: consoles, laptops, smartphones, televisions, servers, and data centres. The biggest demand is generated by AI accelerators. Upcoming Nvidia chips from the Rubin family are expected to require as much as 20 TB of SSD space per unit. If tens of millions of such cards hit the market, they could consume a significant portion of global NAND production. In practice, this means a brutal struggle for available components. Reduced supply directly translates to higher prices and production difficulties.
What does this mean for PS6?
Sony officially assures that it has secured component supplies until the end of 2026. The problem arises later. The industry has long speculated that PlayStation 6 could debut around 2027, maintaining the classic generational cycle. However, if memory prices remain high and availability limited, producing millions of consoles at a reasonable price may prove unrealistic. Even a one or two-year delay in the launch may not resolve the issue if the crisis indeed extends to 2030 or beyond.
The worst scenario is a decade of problems
The head of Phison does not see a quick recovery for the market. According to his forecasts, tensions in supply chains and pressure from AI could persist for as long as 10 years. This means that not only consoles but all consumer electronics may remain expensive and harder to access. For now, we are talking about warnings and analyses, not an official statement from Sony. However, the direction of change is clear. Artificial intelligence is becoming the largest consumer of memory resources, while traditional electronics are taking a back seat.
The forecasts for the memory market do not inspire optimism. If the shortages of NAND and SSD indeed persist for many years, the release of PlayStation 6 may be postponed or the console may debut at a higher price. Final decisions will only be known closer to the end of the current generation, but one thing is certain: the battle for components is becoming increasingly brutal.
Source: Push Square
