Katarzyna Petru
The semiconductor market is once again beginning to wobble, and the effects may be felt not only by computer and smartphone manufacturers but also by the gaming industry. According to industry forecasts, shortages of NAND memory and SSD storage may persist for many years. In an extreme scenario, the crisis could last even a decade. This puts the launch schedule of PlayStation 6 into question. The issue has been highlighted by Pua Khein-Seng, the head of Phison, a manufacturer of SSD controllers and flash memory solutions. He is one of the key players in the supply chain, so his forecasts are hard to ignore.
AI devours the memory market
Not long ago, there was major talk about rising RAM prices caused by massive orders from companies developing artificial intelligence. Now, the problem is expanding to NAND memory used in: consoles, laptops, smartphones, TVs, servers, and data centres. The highest demand is generated by AI accelerators. Upcoming Nvidia chips from the Rubin family are expected to require as much as 20 TB of SSD space for a single unit. If tens of millions of such cards hit the market, they could consume a significant portion of global NAND production. In practice, this means a brutal fight for available components. Decreased supply directly translates to higher prices and production difficulties.
What does this mean for PS6?
Sony officially assures that it has secured component supplies until the end of 2026. The problem starts afterwards. There has long been speculation in the industry that PlayStation 6 could debut around 2027, maintaining the classic generational cycle. However, if memory prices remain high and availability limited, producing millions of consoles at a reasonable price may prove unrealistic. Even a one or two-year delay in the premiere may not resolve the issue if the crisis does indeed drag on until 2030 or longer.
The worst-case scenario is a decade of problems
The head of Phison does not see a quick market rebound. According to his forecasts, tensions in the supply chains and pressure from AI could persist for up to 10 years. This means that not only consoles but all consumer electronics may remain expensive and harder to access. For now, we are talking about warnings and analyses, rather than an official statement from Sony. However, the direction of change is clear. Artificial intelligence is becoming the largest consumer of memory resources, while traditional electronics are being pushed to the background.
Market forecasts for memory are not encouraging. If NAND and SSD shortages persist for many years, the launch of PlayStation 6 may be delayed or the console may debut at a higher price. Final decisions will only be known closer to the end of the current generation, but one thing is certain: the battle for components is becoming increasingly brutal.
Source: Push Square
