Maciej Koper
Dragons are returning to the big screen — and everything points to them coming back with a bang. The live-action version of How to Train Your Dragon is gearing up for a very strong opening. In the US alone, the film could rake in between $65 million and $75 million in its opening weekend. Globally? Forecasts suggest $175 million to $185 million. And that’s without Japan, which won’t come onboard until September.
We’re not seeing a repeat of Gus Van Sant's “Psycho” here — that is, a frame within a frame lifted from the animation. Behind the camera is Dean DeBlois, the creator of the original, but the new version brings a lot of freshness. Mason Thames and Nico Parker as Hiccup and Astrid bring their own style to these familiar roles, and the flying scenes look fantastic. Toothless? Still adorable, but he’s not an animated decal.
Reviews? On Rotten Tomatoes, we have 81% “fresh.” That’s less than the 99% of the original, but still very solid. The film is being released widely — IMAX, 4DX, ScreenX, and in PLF format.
Dragon Offence Abroad
On the international front, How to Train Your Dragon starts off very well — the premiere screenings alone have already brought in $21.8 million. By Sunday, the total outside the USA should reach $110 million.
Where is it doing best?
Korea — $4.3 million after 4 days, 99% Egg Score.
UK and Ireland — $1.2 million on Monday, the leader of the day.
Germany — $1.1 million.
France — $1.4 million.
Brazil — $2.7 million.
Mexico — $2.1 million.
This is good news, as the How to Train Your Dragon series has been strong in foreign markets for years — out of the $1.7 billion globally, as much as $1.1 billion has come from outside the USA.
The Chinese market is, as usual, a mystery, but the presales are strong. The previous HTTYD films made a total of $120 million there (historically). On the plus side — Universal has HTTYD theme attractions in Beijing, which boosts the hype.
In the USA? A small battle Stitch vs. Dragons
In the USA, How to Train Your Dragon will launch on Thursday from 2 PM. In theory, the only real competitor is Lilo & Stitch, which despite being in its fourth weekend could still add $20 million. Both films have a similar yet different target audience. There will definitely be enough cinema space to fill the theatres again. Meanwhile what’s interesting is that the Super Bowl did the trick. The HTTYD spot alone garnered over 370 million views on YouTube, and the total promotional materials have exceeded 750 million views. The campaign is working, and the hype leading up to the release in the USA is really solid.
What will compete with the premiere of Dragons?
Materialists from A24 (romantic comedy starring Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans) is expected to make $7–8 million in its debut. Ratings on Rotten Tomatoes: 89% fresh. The film mainly targets a female audience.
Ballerina (spin-off of John Wick) is aiming for $11 million in its second weekend, following a launch of $26.5 million.
At the end of the day...
If nothing goes wrong at the last minute — How to Train Your Dragon should snag one of the best openings of the summer box office for 2025 this weekend. After successful launches in Korea and Latin America and a very solid start in the UK and Germany, Universal can be fairly relaxed.
This isn’t a film that’s going to break records set by Barbie or the Avengers — but for an animated to live-action adaptation (and not from Disney!) it’ll be a strong result.
Source: deadline.com
